Imagine a world where nearly half the population is either entirely excluded from the digital realm or only has fleeting, inadequate access. This is the stark reality of global connectivity today.
While the internet has become an indispensable tool for education, commerce, and social interaction, a staggering 2.6 billion people remain completely unconnected i.e. 22.5% of the globe (ITU Facts and Figures 2024).
Adding to this, another 2 billion are not “meaningfully connected,” leaving them unable to fully participate in the digital economy (Source: Nwana (2025), The Connectivity Crisis – Half the World Left Behind).
This article is based on a presentation at CANTO Conference 2025, delivered by Professor H Sama Nwana and explores this connectivity crisis, touching on how the Pareto Principle, also known as the 80/20 rule, sheds light on the challenges and potential solutions.
The digital divide is far more extensive than simple access statistics suggest. While approximately 5.5 billion people are connected to the internet, the quality of that connection varies dramatically.
The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) uses a metric that considers individuals connected if they’ve used the internet once in the past three months. Prof Nwana argues that this definition is inadequate, as it fails to capture the essence of true digital inclusion.
The Alliance for Affordable Internet (A4AI) offers a more robust framework for “meaningful connectivity,” emphasising:
To illustrate, consider the average internet usage in the UK. In 2023, the average person spent 3 hours and 41 minutes online daily, while young adults spent 4 hours and 36 minutes. This level of engagement allows for meaningful participation in the digital society, a stark contrast to the sporadic access experienced by billions worldwide.
The Caribbean region provides a compelling case study of the complexities of digital connectivity.
The region faces a significant digital divide, with a substantial portion of the population either unconnected or lacking meaningful access.
While some Caribbean nations boast high internet penetration rates (Bahamas, Costa Rica and Antigua & Barbuda all exceed 90%), the regional average lags behind at 68.4% in 2025. Haiti notably struggles, with less than half its population online.
Closing the connectivity gap in the Caribbean requires substantial investment.
The Pareto Principle, or 80/20 rule, posits that roughly 80% of effects come from 20% of causes. This principle manifests in various aspects of life, from clothing choices to social interactions.
The 80/20 rule has profound implications for the telecommunications industry.
Connecting the last 22.5% will require 86% of the effort, given that the first 67.5% we’ve already connected used up just 14% of the effort, as depicted in Figure 1.
Acknowledging that the Pareto principle is not scientific QED, but a rule of thumb that seems to always hold, Prof Nwana argues that the Pareto principle applies to connecting the globe to the Internet, with the usage gap challenge at its heart.
The usage gaps refer to the hundreds of millions of people who live within network coverage but are not subscribing to [mobile] Internet services for whatever reasons, typically affordability.
Figure 1 – Airtel’s ‘40% of subscribers generating 80%’ maps closely to the 70/30 Pareto Curve
The telecom industries are also increasingly facing another critical challenge: they’re focusing on a smaller percentage of subscribers who are generating most of their revenues. For example, the Bharti Airtel Group CEO Gopal Vittal recently said that “Airtel had made a “very brave call” in deciding to go after 40 per cent of the customers which account for almost 80 per cent of revenue[1]”.
Guess what? This 40%-customers/80%-revenues squares almost perfectly with the Pareto (70:30) rule of Figure 1, too. We can further predict from this 70:30 line that 90% of Airtel’s revenues are generated from 60% of their subscribers. Ergo, the last 40% of the subscribers only generate 10% of the revenues.
This begs two key questions. First, would these 40% of subscribers be meaningfully connected to the Internet anytime soon, given such economics? Secondly, would a rational profit-maximising Airtel be incentivised to connect those subscribers who are not even connected today?
The connectivity crisis is, in part, a result of market failure. Commercial solutions alone are insufficient to bridge the digital divide, as operators prioritise profitability over universal access.
Universal Service Funds (USFs) are a crucial tool for addressing market failures and promoting digital inclusion.
Achieving universal connectivity requires a realistic assessment of the challenges and a multi-faceted approach.
Regulatory intervention is necessary to address market failures and ensure universal access.
Collaboration between regulators and telecom operators is essential for achieving realistic connectivity goals. Regulators should work with operators to understand their economic constraints and develop innovative funding models.
Effective policies are crucial for promoting digital inclusion.
The global connectivity crisis represents a significant challenge to achieving inclusive and sustainable development. The Pareto Principle highlights the economic realities that can hinder universal access, but also offers insights into prioritising efforts and resources. By understanding the true state of connectivity, addressing market failures, and implementing effective policies, we can bridge the digital divide and unlock the transformative potential of the internet for all. The research presented here underscores the urgency and complexity of this issue, emphasising the need for collaborative action to ensure a digitally inclusive future.
The challenges outlined in this analysis form the foundation of Prof H Sama Nwana’s forthcoming book, The Connectivity Crisis – Half the World Left Behind, set for publication in Autumn 2025. Drawing on extensive research and real-world experience, the book offers a comprehensive roadmap for tackling the global digital divide, providing practical strategies for policymakers, industry leaders, and development organisations.
The book serves as both a sobering assessment of our current failures and an inspiring call to action—demonstrating that while the solutions may be complex, the opportunity to transform billions of lives through universal, meaningful connectivity remains within our grasp.
[1] https://www.mobileworldlive.com/airtel/airtel-ceo-underscores-strategy-shift-for-turnaround/#:~:text=He%20noted%20management%20is%20certain,come%20out%20of%20a%20downturn. OR https://www.mobileworldlive.com/airtel/airtel-ceo-underscores-strategy-shift-for-turnaround/#:~:text=He%20noted%20management%20is%20certain,come%20out%20of%20a%20downturn. AND https://www.mobileworldlive.com/old_latest-stories/interview-bharti-airtel-group/
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