GSMA is tipping 4x global mobile data growth this decade, well ahead of actual growth in mature 5G markets.
The wireless industry has been feasting on mobile traffic growth for more than a decade, but a growing number of data points suggest that demand is flattening out.
Most recently we have seen Ericsson downwardly revise some of its past numbers after they fell short of the actual figures – although it retained its previous forecasts.
In China, the world’s largest 5G market by subs numbers, mobile data demand is in a steep decline.
MIIT figures released this week show per user data consumption (DOU) grew just 8.1% in the first half of the year.
That compares to a 68% increase in 2019, the year that 5G licenses were issued. That fell to 13% in 2022 and 11% at end- 2023. Since then, we’ve seen a fall in growth of nearly three percentage points in six months.
This levelling-off would be less disconcerting if the 5G investments had opened up fresh revenue streams as anticipated. That may yet happen as more operators deploy standalone and upgrade to 5G-Advanced, but they are showing great reluctance to do either of those right now.
4x growth
Understandably, the GSMA, the operator association, is in the optimists’ camp. Its new Asia-Pacific mobile economy report forecasts 3.7x growth in worldwide traffic over the rest of the decade.
That includes mature markets like Korea and Japan, where it predicts per-user consumption will grow from 18GB to 87GB over the years 2023 to 2030 – a 4.8x increase.
That seems a stretch in light of the China figures and the reduced Ericsson numbers. But in response to a Light Reading query, the GSMA said it believed data traffic in Japan and South Korea will be much higher than China in 2030.
“While China has rapidly rolled out 5G and continues to perform well vs other markets, there is a limit to the number of people in the market that will engage in advanced data services; the slowdown in traffic growth is an indication that we could be reaching that limit,” it said.
“That’s not to say that traffic will not continue to grow, just that the growth is coming from the same digital pioneers increasing their usage rather than new people trying out services.”
The GSMA report said it believes growth across the region is being driven “by enhanced device capabilities, network improvements and an increase in data-intensive content.”
“As 4G subscribers migrate to 5G, average mobile data traffic per smartphone will increase and is expected to reach 53GB per month in 2030.”
That target certainly looks a stretch. China right now is only 16GB, and the GSMA has South Korea at 18GB.
Something spectacular is going to have to happen if they’re going to rebound from the existing growth rates of 10% and under.
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